Do Presidential Candidates Pay to Win Polls?
/
Vivek Ramaswamy Photo by Gage Skidmoore/Wikicommons
No one was surprised former President Trump dominated the CPAC poll last week, nor was anyone surprised Florida Governor Ron DeSantis came in second. Perhaps Trump’s enormous lead of 62% to DeSantis’ 20% came as a surprise, but CPAC is Trump country. The biggest surprise was Perry Johnson coming in third, which prompted a collective question on social media: “Who is Perry Johnson?”
Perry Johnson is a businessman from Michigan. He’s been in the public eye around the state after running for governor yet failing to qualify for the ballot after nearly 9,400 of 23,000 submitted signatures were deemed fraudulent. Johnson was one of five candidates disqualified from the Republican gubernatorial primary. Johnson tried to challenge the results but was unsuccessful.
Since then, his sights have shifted from the governor’s mansion to the White House. He even paid for a commercial to air during the Super Bowl in Iowa. Was Johnson’s ad of bloated politicians enough to capture the hearts of young attendees? Or was he charming enough on the ground to persuade voters to place him above former Governor Nikki Haley, Senator Ted Cruz, and Senator Rand Paul?
“After formally announcing my campaign to be your next president on Thursday, I couldn't be more thrilled to have earned the votes of so many conservatives.”
Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, who is also a presidential hopeful, gave some insight on Fox News Business that’s raising a few eyebrows. “You wanna know something funny about this? I’ve attended CPAC before. I didn’t know it works this way. A consultant calls my campaign shortly after I declared and said, ‘Hey, we can get you up to number two on there if you pay a few hundred thousand dollars.” Ramaswamy was “shocked,” but I certainly wasn’t.
As some attendees explained online, and as I know from being from Michigan with my ear to the ground, Johnson went to CPAC with an entourage. If you bring enough people with you who will vote in the straw poll, you can stack it in your favor. That’s just how it works.
And let’s say, I’ve seen notable straw polls in Michigan stacked before. It’s not unusual for a posse of attendees to show up for a conference, even for one day, at the behest of campaigns. The straw poll results might be fascinating to people who read about them in the newspaper, but it’s just business as usual if you already know how the sausage is made.
The benefit to the candidate is the press covering the results and national attention. The candidate can then generate more buzz and show his supporters and donors they have a chance at victory.
POLITICO investigated Ramaswamy’s claim and talked to a senior campaign staffer. “Basically, they were like, if you pay I think it was upward of $100,000, we can get tickets and bus a bunch of people in for the straw poll.” Since Ramaswamy denied the offer, they don’t know how the logistics would have worked.
A spokesperson from CPAC said, “A straw poll is a vote that those in attendance get to participate in. If a presidential contender is organized and popular, they can do well.” I’m not alleging Perry Johnson received the same call or offer as Ramaswamy. I’m simply pointing out that the strategy of bringing your own voters is real and obviously happens.
Ramaswamy said the process was “corrupt” and he would be exposing it along the way. “I didn’t get to where I am by just being exploited.”
Straw polls are common among gatherings of political activists. I’ve seen them at Christmas parties and various meetings. Though the results can be swayed if there’s a good game plan, most wins simply depend on the sort of crowd the organization attracts. CPAC is MAGA country. It’s no shock Trump won. Governor DeSantis beat out Trump at the Students for Life summit back in January. There genuinely didn’t appear to be much excitement for the former president on the ground, especially after his negative comments regarding pro-life activists and the midterm election results.
When looking at polls, it’s important to look at sampling when weighing the merit of the results. Polling is often used in politics to shape public opinion rather than weigh it. That’s something to keep in mind while heading into what’s sure to be an interesting primary season.
