Retribution v. Optimism
/Thursday, August 24, was the day the Trump campaign, Democrats, and the mainstream media were all waiting for. At precisely 7:30 PM ET, President Joe Biden tweeted, “Apropos of nothing, I think today’s a great day to give to my campaign.” Of course, this was the time his political rival, former President Donald Trump, surrendered himself to Fulton County for his arraignment. Trump had to take a mugshot, which has been seen by millions all around the world now. His critics celebrated it as a criminal finally getting what he deserved. His supporters saw it as a symbol of a two-tiered justice system, and Trump is a martyr for their cause. For the Trump campaign, it was instant dollar signs. They reportedly raised over $7 million. It was also rocket fuel for their campaign.
It was blasted on the front of Trump's website. “The American people know what’s going on. What has taken place is a travesty of justice and ELECTION INTERFERENCE. The Left wants to intimidate YOU out of voting for a political outsider who puts the American people FIRST. But I walked into the lion’s den with one simple message on behalf of our entire movement: I WILL NEVER SURRENDER OUR MISSION TO SAVE AMERICA.”
He then said, “If you are doing poorly due to the sinister people in control of our country right now, don’t even think about donating! But if you can, please make a contribution to evict Crooked Joe Biden from the White House and SAVE AMERICA during this dark chapter in our nation’s history.”
Across the country in Iowa, the far-and-away second-place Republican presidential hopeful visited the famous “Field of Dreams” and played baseball with his small children. Though Trump had a busy day, he still had time to push out attacks against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis on Truth Social.
The following day, Donald Trump Jr. tweeted, “Either Rob simply doesn’t know what time it is or he’s allowing his establishment never-Trump consultants, who are making millions off of his failing campaign, to control his every move!” He also mocked DeSantis’ cowboy boots and asked if he was transitioning.
But for DeSantis, he’s making the case to the voters that the world revolving around Trump is a tactical error. “If this election is about a candidate like me that’s a proven leader, got a proven record, that served this country in uniform, and I’m out there every day holding Joe Biden accountable for his failures and showing the American people there’s a better way—that we can reverse the decline of the country—we’re gonna win across the board. Okay? It’s not just gonna be me, because this is a team effort. It’s gonna be Congress, it’s gonna be U.S. Senate, it’s gonna be state legislatures, all these things. I think we can have a historic election. But if the election ends up being about what happened in the past, if it ends up being about personalities and other things like that, well then Biden is gonna be able to sit in his basement again, not justify his record, and I think he’s gonna get away with it, and I think Republicans are gonna lose. So, this is our choice to put our best foot forward.”
When DeSantis is asked about the “two-tiered justice system,” he brings up the pro-life father persecuted by the Biden DOJ and the parents treated as the enemy at school board meetings—it’s much bigger than Trump. But the truth Republicans have to face is nothing can be fixed if they don’t obtain any power.
There are two major choices Republican voters can make: one is satisfying and more exciting, and the other is safe yet a bit boring.
Donald Trump is like the Star Wars original trilogy. He came in 2016 as a new hope. In 2020, the Empire definitely struck back, and we’re living under the consequences of Biden’s policies. The idea of Trump returning for a big finale is tempting. It feels like justice for millions of voters who believe the election was unfair (whether through fraud or Big Tech and media manipulation), or at least like vindication for those who supported Trump, knowing he was a far better president than Biden. But I’ve also heard Trump supporters say they were only interested in “retribution.”
The Return of the Jedi’s original title was going to be “Revenge of the Jedi.” It was even included in the original teaser trailer, but George Lucas changed it because a “true Jedi should never seek revenge.” Luke was interested in restoring balance and redeeming his father, and he couldn’t do that while being blinded by rage.
A DeSantis supporter responded to the “retribution” motivation with, “I don’t have time for retribution; I’ve got kids.” He once supported Trump, but “did not sign up for” what happened on January 6, fears Trump isn’t electable in the general, and worse, that he isn’t “correctable.”
Voters like that would prefer the dad playing catch in Iowa, focused on the future he can build for them. It might not be as exciting as a mugshot allegedly worth $7 million, but it makes a better appeal to suburban white women. That’s more important than AI-Trump rap albums floating around social media, no matter how much fire he spits in those bars.
But DeSantis’ campaign has made errors. Instead of having a meteoric rise, everyone is looking at him like he’s a lunatic about to lose his farm over a crazy dream. But Ron DeSantis is still convinced that if he builds his message and ground game, they will come. DeSantis has a good record that he heavily relies on, and he gives incredible interviews. But he’s also an awkward dork, and that was evident at the first debate and when he works a room. That slow-building smile is more like Homelander than Kevin Costner, and charisma is one area where Trump doesn’t lack. Though DeSantis easily came out on top at the second debate, his opponents and the moderators made it almost unwatchable.
The 2018 campaign against Andrew Gillum was also a struggle. But DeSantis won the day, by less than a percentage point, by having better policies. In 2022, DeSantis was reelected by 19 points. The moral of the story is to thank God that Florida barely made the right decision and has a governor who protected their liberties during the pandemic, uplifted parents over ideologues, and took on corrupt Soros-funded officials instead of a Democrat who wanted to raise their taxes, had allegations of corruption, and went to rehab for his drug problem. Florida dodged a massive bullet.
Can DeSantis win in a general election? DeSantis has proved he can win multiple elections, but it won’t be easy. No matter who gets the nomination, much of the national conversation will be centered around Trump’s trials. One of them is set for the day before Super Tuesday. Some Trump supporters think that’s meant to hurt him. I think it’s meant to drive angry Trump supporters out to the polls.
Can Trump win in a general election? It’s not impossible, but you’re asking many voters to do something that most people have an issue with—change their minds. Yes, gas was $2 during the Trump administration, we got a tax cut, and no new wars, but the media made Americans feel like they were living in a state of chaos under a crazy man. Many were just sick of the noise. They may not like Biden or his economy, but people can get used to a bad situation. A vote for Trump doesn’t feel like a step forward for them; it feels like a step backward. Even beyond Trump’s indictments, that’s a major hurdle for Trump to clear.
Trump also has trials to prepare for and much of his campaign fundraising has gone to legal bills. And regardless of how absurd some of the charges against Trump are (the New York indictment), there are some behaviors alleged in the indictments that do not paint a flattering picture of the former president, especially in the Florida case.
The Democrats don’t have a good candidate running. Joe Biden, who is seen as frail, confused, and caught up in a serious corruption scandal with his son, should be easy to defeat. But the entire media apparatus has a convenient distraction. Their stunts aren’t that different than what they pulled in the midterm elections: elevate Trump’s brand in the primary and then watch the general public reject it. Trump isn’t totally wrong when he accuses the Democrats of “election interference.” The Democrats have been playing 4D chess the whole time. Biden’s timed tweet for donations was in remarkably bad taste, but what does he care? He thinks there will be no repercussions.
That’s why Trump’s story of vengeance is currently far more compelling to GOP primary voters, but is it worth burning DeSantis’s field of dreams along the way? Trump ran candidates in 2022 who were focused on 2020 instead of the present. They were decimated. The gains in the House were much smaller than anticipated, and the Democrats have control of the Senate. As Vivek Ramaswamy said in Nation of Victims, “But while Trump promised to lead the nation to recommit itself to the pursuit of greatness, what he delivered in the end was just another tale of grievance, a persecution complex that swallowed much of the Republican party whole.”
Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley did well in the first GOP debate and could be formidable in the general election, but many primary voters see her as a neocon dedicated to pushing war. Pharmaceutical businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is a young smooth talker swaying many voters, but his fast-talking has also led to a lot of backpaddling on policy. He offers many visions, but not the consistency voters yearned for when they foolishly left Trump for Biden.
The choice for president largely seems to be a choice between Trump and DeSantis. They both have records worth admiring, but one is largely focused on the past while the other wants to focus on the future. Whoever is standing center stage at the 2024 RNC National Convention will determine where the future of the party is headed and what we prioritize: retribution or optimism.
